The gold and oil cheat sheet

The usual reaction to the news that matters most. Prices do not always follow it.

For gold

When this happens	Effect	Why
US inflation above forecast	Usually bad	Higher interest rates become more likely.
US inflation below forecast	Usually good	Lower interest rates become more likely.
More US jobs than forecast	Usually bad	The Fed has room to keep rates high.
Fewer US jobs than forecast	Usually good	Lower rates become more likely.
Fed raises rates or sounds hawkish	Usually bad	Bonds and savings pay more than gold.
Fed cuts rates or sounds dovish	Usually good	Gold costs less to hold, and the dollar often falls.
The dollar rises	Usually bad	Gold gets more expensive for buyers outside the US.
The dollar falls	Usually good	Gold gets cheaper for buyers outside the US.
US bond yields rise	Usually bad	Bonds become a stronger rival to gold.
US bond yields fall	Usually good	Holding gold costs less in lost income.
Oil shock in the Gulf	Usually bad	More expensive oil keeps inflation and rates high.
A major crisis with no oil angle	Usually good	Nervous investors buy gold for protection.
Central banks buying gold	Usually good	A steady source of demand.

When this happens	Effect	Why
OPEC+ cuts output	Usually good	Less supply reaches the market.
OPEC+ raises output	Usually bad	More supply reaches the market.
US oil stocks fall more than expected	Usually good	A sign of tight supply or strong demand.
US oil stocks rise more than expected	Usually bad	A sign of weak demand or plenty of supply.
Attacks on tankers or trouble at Hormuz	Usually good	About a fifth of the world's oil passes through there.
A peace deal in the Gulf	Usually bad	More oil flows, and the fear of a supply cut fades.
Refinery or pipeline outage	Usually good	Supply is taken off the market.
New sanctions on a big producer	Usually good	Less of that oil reaches buyers.
Sanctions eased on a big producer	Usually bad	More of that oil reaches buyers.
Bigger demand forecast	Usually good	The world needs more oil than expected.
Recession fears	Usually bad	A weaker economy burns less fuel.